Lead supervisor: Marie Edmonds, Earth Sciences
Co-supervisor: Nina Kristiansen, Met Office; Claire Horwell, Durham University
Brief summary:
This project will fill a significant knowledge gap regarding the chemical, physical and health impacts of volcanic sulfur dioxide plumes from intermediate-sized Icelandic eruptions on aircraft and on aircraft passengers in UK airspace, in collaboration with the Met Office.
Importance of the area of research concerned:
The UK and its associated airspace are vulnerable to the effects of Icelandic eruptions. Whilst much work has been done on volcanic ash dispersal, much less has been done focussing on the effects of volcanic gases and aerosols. Acidic gases and aerosol pose a poorly-understood threat to aircraft via chemical abrasion to the exterior and interior; and to passengers and crew due to the health impacts of inhalation in the cabin. Volcanic eruptions with potential to affect UK airspace occur in Iceland every ~1-3 years. The most frequent eruptions are small (0.1 km3 erupted) and the more infrequent eruptions (every 500-1000 years) are large flood basalt eruptions (e.g. Laki, 1783, erupting >10 km3). Fissure eruptions typically produce gas-rich and ash-poor plumes largely confined to the troposphere but which may be transported considerable distances laterally. The sulfur output of these eruptions are well-constrained using petrological approaches. Significant knowledge gaps remain in understanding the impacts of gas and aerosol plumes on the UK. The environmental, health and social impacts on aviation arising from intermediate-sized eruptions (VEI 4-5) have not been well-studied.
Project summary :
This project aims to understand the risks posed by ‘1-in-50 year’ Icelandic eruption gas and aerosol plumes on the atmosphere above the UK, principally with regard to aviation risk. The project will utilise our understanding of sulfur degassing from Icelandic magmas to formulate source terms for a range of plausible eruption types and styles. These source terms will be used to inform an atmospheric dispersion model (NAME: Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment) using a range of meteorological scenarios. We will characterise the dispersal of SO2 and ash independently - from ground to the highest flight levels - after an eruption and build understanding of how sulfur gases and aerosols enter the aircraft and interact chemically with air filtration systems and what, therefore, is the resulting input into the cabin - vital information for applying WHO air quality guidelines.
What will the student do?:
The student will undertake literature reviews of Icelandic eruption magnitude and style, as well as volatile output, to create a database that will form the basis for an assessment of suitable eruption source terms. The student will carry out numerical modelling at the Met Office using a range of meteorological scenarios. Outputs will be used to construct a probabilistic risk model for the impact of future eruptions associated with significant volcanic gas plumes on UK airspace. The outputs of the model will be analysed with respect to current understanding of WHO health benchmarks and studies of gas impacts on engines.
References - references should provide further reading about the project:
de Leeuw J, Schmidt A, Witham CS, Theys N, Taylor IA, Grainger RG, Pope RJ, Haywood J, Osborne M, Kristiansen NI. The 2019 Raikoke volcanic eruption–Part 1: Dispersion model simulations and satellite retrievals of volcanic sulfur dioxide. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 2021 Jul 19;21(14):10851-79.
Moxnes ED, Kristiansen NI, Stohl A, Clarisse L, Durant A, Weber K, Vogel A. Separation of ash and sulfur dioxide during the 2011 Grímsvötn eruption. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 2014 Jun 27;119(12):7477-501.
Carn SA, Krueger AJ, Krotkov NA, Yang K, Evans K. Tracking volcanic sulfur dioxide clouds for aviation hazard mitigation. Natural hazards. 2009 Nov;51:325-43.
Applying
You can find out about applying for this project on the Department of Earth Sciences page.